Tuesday, 5 January 2016

Donald Trump is Not Going Away

In an earlier blog entry on July 23,2015 I made the point that Donald Trump needs to be taken seriously as a Presidential Candidate.  The attacks on him have only helped him expand his support and he now has a strong and commanding lead for the Republican Nomination.  Mr. Trump has fired back effectively at his critics and the Republican field has gotten nowhere by attacking him.  Rick Perry who described the Trump candidacy as a "cancer" was the first to drop out of the race.  He was followed by other Trump critics Bobby Jindal and Scott Walker.  Jeb Bush is still there despite polling badly because he has the money to keep going for now.

The Republican base clearly wants an outsider and that is why Dr. Ben Carson was doing well for a while.  His support has dropped and some has gone to Donald Trump with more going to another outsider, Canadian born Senator Ted Cruz of Texas.  If the Trump and Cruz campaigns united the competition would be over but that is not likely to happen for a while.  By then each hopes they will not need the other.  For now neither will sharply criticize the other for fear of alienating potential supporters.  We will know more once the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary are over.

Of the "establishment" Republican candidates it now looks like only Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has a chance.  Jeb Bush is tainted by his brother's legacy and his own lacklustre performance, especially in debates.  Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey is tainted by his poor reputation at home in New Jersey and the "Bridgegate" scandal where Christie enemies were punished with traffic jams in their cities.  That incident and some of the Christie style reminds people of the worst of Richard Nixon.  Nobody else in the Republican field running for President appears to have any chance.  Most seem to still be hoping The Donald will go away and everyone will start over giving them another chance.

This leaves Donald Trump as the likely nominee.  In my earlier post I gave the opinion that if Mr. Trump got the nomination he would win the election and become President of the United States. At the time I thought it highly unlikely that The Donald would be the nominee.  Now I do believe he will be the Republican candidate.  If he is the candidate I am almost certain he would win over self proclaimed Socialist Bernie Sanders.   The more likely Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton could win in a landslide with moderate and establishment Republicans backing her or she may lose due to Clinton Fatigue a condition similar to Bush Fatigue.  Donald Trump is certainly the most exciting and inspiring candidate.  His success will depend on his ability to appeal to a broader base and his choice of running mate for Vice President.

The stakes are very high and the outcome is still far from certain.  The world is nervously watching.

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